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Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Mortgage Applications Up After New Year's Day

From Realtor Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News January 13, 2010

Mortgage application volume increased 14.3 percent last week compared to the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

On an unadjusted basis applications rose 66 percent. The increase reflects a shortened week due to the New Year’s holiday.

Most of the increase was in refinances, which rose 73.9 percent from the previous week’s unadjusted index. The unadjusted purchase index rose 48.8 percent compared to the previous week and was down 24.9 percent compared to the same week a year ago.

Interest rates slipped:

* 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.13 percent from 5.18 percent.
* 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.45 percent from 4.62 percent.
* 1-year ARMs increased to 6.83 percent from 6.42 percent.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (01/13/2010)

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Analyst: Housing a Good Investment in 2010

From Realtor Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News January 11, 2010

Forbes housing reporter and analyst Francesca Levy makes some thought-provoking predictions in the latest issue of the magazine.

She predicts:

* Real estate will be an attractive investment strategy in 2010 with wealthy investors devoting an increasing segment of their portfolios to it.
* Loan modifications will result in more people who should probably be facing foreclosure slipping deeper into debt.
* Cities like Omaha, Neb., and Buffalo, N.Y., which avoided the housing bubble and most of the bust, will be models for cities trying to avoid another bubble.
* Financial troubles in Dubai will ripple through the U.S. luxury market, creating energy in a market that has been stagnant.

Source: Forbes, Francesca Levy (12/28/2009)

Fed: It's Time the Market Stands on its Own

From Realtor Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News January 11, 2010

April 1 will be the first day that the Federal Reserve will end its debt purchase program and allow the struggling U.S. mortgage market to operate unassisted. As a result, the Fed believes mortgage rates will rise about three-quarters of a percent to about 6 percent, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said Saturday.

Fear of a worldwide perception that the U.S. government is simply printing money to use to purchase mortgage-related securities is a big reason the Fed has pulled back, analysts say. If that fear caused a sell-off of U.S. government bonds, it would push borrowing costs substantially higher and derail the economic recovery.

"We are still in uncharted waters," Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in an unrelated speech Saturday. "We will need to be flexible and adjust as we gain experience."

Source: Reuters News, Pedro Nicolaci da Costa (01/08/2010)

Expanded Tax Credit Offers Big Opportunity

From Realtor Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News January 11, 2010

With a new April 30 deadline in place for clients to take advantage of a federal home-buyer incentive, real estate practitioners now have slightly less than four months to get their qualified prospects under contract before the cut-off date.

In order to maximize this opportunity, it is recommended that real estate pros revamp their marketing materials to reflect changes in the rules — which now allow certain repeat buyers, as well as first-time buyers, to get a tax break.

In addition to promoting home-buying based on today's lower home prices and historically low interest rates, it is also important for the real estate professional to convey to clients that there is no requirement that they sell their current residence at once — or ever.

On top of polishing up their marketing approach, real estate professionals should free up their time so that they are available to spend more time guiding buyers and hosting property showings.

They also must be thoroughly knowledgeable about the supply of properties priced up to $800,000, which is the maximum price for a home to qualify for the tax credit.

Finally, agents must keep all other parties involved in transactions — from lenders to inspectors — on top of things and at the ready because most motivated house-hunters will want to move quickly once they have found their ideal property.

Source: RISMedia, Margaret Kelly (01/08/10)

Fewer Sellers Cut Home Prices, for Now

From Realtor Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News January 12, 2010

Trulia reports a decline in the number of home sellers lowering their asking prices at least once to 21 percent as of Jan. 1 from 22 percent in December and 25.6 percent in November, marking the lowest level since April. The average discount held steady at 11 percent.

Trulia reports a 50 percent drop in cities with price reductions of 30 percent or more on average, with only seven major cities reporting such cuts at the beginning of the month. Regionally, 20 percent of listings in the South and 22 percent of listings in the West, Midwest, and Northeast experienced price cuts.

Trulia CEO Pete Flint says, "I expect reductions to rise again as the tax credit extension deadline approaches but I also expect mortgage rates to rise, so they may cancel out the savings [from list price reductions].

Source: Reuters, Lynn Adler, (01/12/10)

Friday, January 8, 2010

Mortgage Rates Fall This Week

From Realtor Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News January 8, 2010

Average interest on long-term mortgages went down slightly this week, after rising in the four previous weeks. Freddie Mac reports that 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 5.09 percent, down from 5.14 percent a week ago, but higher than the 5.01 percent it reached this time last year.

Other mortgage rates performed as follows:

* 15-year, fixed loans fell 0.4 percent to 4.5 percent.
* 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages stayed flat.
* 1-year ARMs declined 0.03 percent to 4.31 percent.

Source: Chicago Sun-Times, Francine Knowles (01/08/10)

Fannie Mae to Ease Financing for Condos

From Realtor Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News January 8, 2010

Fannie Mae announced Thursday that it will make exceptions to its tough condo-funding rules for some Florida condominium projects in an effort to stabilize this hard-hit market.

Fannie says it will reassess hundreds of Florida condo projects to see if they are “sufficiently stable” for buyers to qualify for loans, even if the projects don’t meet current requirements.

Rules that prevent government-backed financing include: requiring a building to be at least 51 percent owner-occupied, have a maximum 20 percent of nonresidential space, and hold a 10 percent reserve in its projects budget. Buildings that don’t meet these requirements can’t be Fannie Mae-approved so buyers won’t qualify for government financing, including FHA loans.

Source: Reuters News, Al Yoon (01/07/2010)

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Prime Defaults Likely to Rise

From Realtor Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News January 5, 2010

Mortgage defaults among prime borrowers are likely to increase in 2009, say Robert Shiller and Karl Case, the economists who created the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Shiller, a Yale professor, points to a report from the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision, released Dec. 21, that says the number of overdue prime mortgages doubled in the third quarter compared to a year earlier.

The research team blames the increase on unemployment. “Unemployment is not respecting income boundaries,” says Case. “It’s affecting rich people, poor people, and middle-income people and they all have mortgages.”

Case says he doesn’t believe the rising number of prime foreclosures will derail the housing recovery because the supply of new homes for sale is at the lowest level in 40 years. “That’s taking some of the pressure off,” he says.

Source: Bloomberg, Kathleen M. Howley and Mike Dorning (01/04/2010)

Grubb & Ellis: Commercial Real Estate Will Decline

From Realtor Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News January 5, 2010

Grubb & Ellis Co. released its annual forecast Monday, predicting that commercial real estate will decline more slowly in 2009, reaching bottom by the end of the year and starting to recover in 2011.

The problem is the labor market, which is just beginning to improve and then only slightly. “Because commercial real estate lags the labor market, it still has a ways to go before reaching its own low point," says Bob Bach, senior vice president, chief economist of Grubb & Ellis.

Bach disputes the notion promulgated by some that the commercial real estate market is the next bubble to burst. Grubb & Ellis examines all segments of the commercial market and concludes that across the board the “free fall we saw in 2009 is over, and the future is more certain, giving owners and users of real estate the confidence to begin making decisions again," Bach says.

Offices

The national vacancy rate is expected to reach 18.5 percent to 19 percent by the end of 2010, the highest since the company began keeping records in 1986. The Austin, Texas, office market is expected to recover most quickly, followed by Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles.

Industrial markets

The demand for industrial space increased in 2009; nevertheless, Grubb & Ellis expects warehouse rents to decline 6 percent and vacancy rates to reach 11.5 percent in 2010.

Retail

Recovery is expected to be weak with little demand until 2011. “Retailers and owners of retail real estate will need to adapt to a 'new normal' in consumer attitudes that may last for some time, including more conservatism and attention to value as households rebuild their savings," Bach says.

Multi-housing

Apartments will benefit from the decline of homeownership rates to pre-bubble levels or less, as well as increased volume of 20- to 29-year-old apartment seekers as the boomers' kids move out on their own.

Source: Grubb & Ellis Co. (01/04/2010)