From Realtor Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News May 28, 2009
Economists at investment houses and banks have mixed reactions to the theory that home sales have hit bottom, but there's less uncertainty on prices, which most say have further to fall.
Here are some analysts' views:
Abiel Reinhart, J.P. Morgan: “While we believe sales will increase in the short run, the medium-term picture is more difficult to judge. With such a large share of market being distressed sales, any eventual fall in the supply of distressed properties could restrain total sales for a time.”
Richard F. Moody, Forward Capital: “Clearly, the lack of move-up buyers is hampering homes in the middle-to-higher end of the price range, and the difficulty in securing financing on properties with prices above the conforming loan limit is choking off the sales in the higher price ranges.”
Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics: “Don’t be alarmed by the jump in months’ supply, up to 10.2 from 9.6; it’s all seasonal. We reckon the seasonally adjusted single-family home supply was unchanged at 9.2 months, and the slow downward trend continues. But there is a long way to go before prices stabilize.”
Millan L. B. Mulraine, TD Securities: “There is evidence that the perception of a housing market correction bottom may be somewhat premature. Indeed, despite the favorable affordability conditions, the weak economic backdrop facing U.S. households suggests that the correction in the U.S. housing market is likely to continue for some time, even though the pace of deterioration in the sector may ease in the coming months.”
Source: The Wall Street Journal, compiled by Phil Izzo (05/27/2009)
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